Spatio-Temporal Forecasts for Bike Availability in Dockless Bike Sharing Systems

# Spatio-Temporal Forecasts for Bike Availability in Dockless Bike Sharing Systems
## Lucas van der Meer
### Supervised by Edzer Pebesma (WWU), Joel Silva (UNL) & Jorge Mateu (UJI)
### Master Thesis Defence. February 4, 2019

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background-image: url('images/bike.png')
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# Towards more sustainable cities

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background-image: url('images/bike2.png')
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class: center, center, inverse

# With dockless bike sharing

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# What do we need?
.center[
.pull-left[
### Good bike infrastructure
<img src="images/infrastructure.png" width="70%" />
]

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# What does a reliable system mean?

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# How do forecasts help to make systems more reliable?

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# Aim:
# Create a generally applicable <span style = 'color:#fc8c01;'>methodology</span> to forecast bike availability in dockless bike sharing systems

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# Challenges

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# Challenges

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class: middle, center

# Methodology

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# What to forecast?

# For a given <span style = 'color:#fc8c01;'>location</span>, and a given <span style = 'color:#fc8c01;'>timestamp</span> in the future, forecast the expected <span style = 'color:#fc8c01;'>distance</span> to the nearest available bike

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# Requirements

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# Overall design

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# Case study: San Francisco

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---

background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%

# Train and test period

---

background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%

# Cluster loop

---

background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%

# System area

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background-size: 80px
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# Overlaying grid

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---

background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%

# Spatially constrained hierarchical clustering

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background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%

# Model points

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---

background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%

# Model loop

---

---

---

background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%

# The models

<table class="table" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption>Model structures</caption>
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;">   </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Seasonality </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Stochastic model </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Bayview cluster </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> None </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> ARIMA(3, 1, 1) </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Downtown cluster </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Daily </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> ARIMA(2, 1, 1) </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Residential cluster </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Daily </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> ARIMA(1, 1, 1) </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Presidio cluster </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> None </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> ARIMA(1, 1, 3) </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%

# Forecast loop

---

background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%

# Simulating forecast requests

.center[
.col-one[
### More requests at locations where the usage is higher
<img src="images/space.png" width="70%" />
]

.col-two[
### More request at timestamps when the usage is higher
<img src="images/time.png" width="70%" />
]

.col-three[
### Location and timestamp are always a combination!
<img src="images/spacetime.png" width="70%" />
]
]

---

background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%

# Test points

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---

background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%

# Forecasting

---

background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 50% 35%
class: middle, center

# Results

---

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background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%

# Forecast evaluation

<table class="table" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption>Mean absolute errors of forecasts</caption>
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;">   </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Proposed method </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Baseline method </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Overall </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 223 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 322 m </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Bayview cluster </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 332 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 332 m </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Downtown cluster </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 203 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 327 m </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Residential cluster </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 240 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 321 m </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Presidio cluster </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 253 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> 253 m </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 50% 35%
class: middle, center

# Discussion

---

---

background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%

# Limits of forecastability

---

background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%

# What is missing?

---

background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 50% 35%
class: middle, center

# Conclusion

---

background-image: url('images/hexagon.png')
background-size: 80px
background-position: 90% 4%
class: middle, center

# Created a generally applicable methodology to forecast bike availability in dockless bike sharing systems, that <span style = 'color:#fc8c01;'>outperforms the baseline</span>, but also shows the <span style = 'color:#fc8c01;'>limited forecastability</span> of dockless bike sharing data

---

#### All code available on github
#### https://github.com/luukvdmeer/dockless
Slides created with the R package `xaringan`
Plots created with the R package `ggplot2`
Maps created with the R package `leaflet`
Icons adapted from `iconfinder.com`
Images from `jump.com`

---

<table class="table" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption>Average forecast errors</caption>
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;">   </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Proposed method </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Baseline method </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Model points </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Root Mean Squared Error </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 297 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 408 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 251 m </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Mean Absolute Error </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 223 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 322 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 199 m </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

&nbsp;

<table class="table" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
<caption>RMSE per cluster</caption>
 <thead>
  <tr>
   <th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;">   </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Proposed method </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Baseline method </th>
   <th style="text-align:left;color: black;background-color: #fc8c01;"> Model points </th>
  </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Bayview cluster </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 389 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 389 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 236 m </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Downtown cluster </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 275 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 414 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 244 m </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Residential cluster </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 317 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 411 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 270 m </td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
   <td style="text-align:left;width: 8cm; "> Presidio cluster </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 320 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 320 m </td>
   <td style="text-align:left;"> 142 m </td>
  </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

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